How to Win “The Wave” Permit Lottery … Against the Odds (Update: 2024)
YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING THE WAVE LOTTERY … AREN’T GREAT
Who am I to be giving advice on how to win the lottery for The Wave permit?
I’ve tried for years, and have spent quite a bit of cash on it … only to come up a loser time after time!
Still I can offer a lot of information I’ve gathered over the years from rangers at the BLM, the staff at The Hub in Page (who run the daily lottery in AZ), and people who’ve worked in tourism in the Page area for years.
So while you can certainly increase your chances of winning The Wave lottery, at the end of the day, it mostly comes down to luck!
The Two Different Lotteries for The Wave
There are two different lotteries you can enter to win a permit to hike to The Wave.
One allows you to apply months in advance, so you can better plan a trip if you happen to win.
The other is far more risky, and requires you to spend a few days in either Kanah, Utah, or Page, Arizona. I always love my time in the area, so there’s plenty to do if (when) you don’t win The Wave lottery.
May I suggest: Antelope Canyon, Horseshoe Bend, and White Pocket!
#1: The Advance Wave Lottery: Apply 4 Months Ahead
The Advance Lottery allows you to plan a trip to The Wave (Coyote Buttes North, as it’s known officially) four months ahead of your visit.
Either 48 people, or 12 groups are chosen for each date (whichever comes first in the lottery drawing).
It all goes through the BLM permit page at Recreation.gov.
Each entry is $9, which is non-refundable. If you win The Wave lottery, you’ll owe another $7 per person.
January is the time to apply for a permit to hike The Wave in the month of May. In February, you register in the lottery to hike in the month of June. And so on….
EXAMPLE:
- You want to hike The Wave in March of 2024?
- Applications open November 1st, 2023.
- Applications remain open through November 30, 2023.
- The lottery is drawn December 1st, 2023.
- Emails go out to all who applied, whether you won the lottery or not.
You can enter at any time during the month, to win a permit for a hike four months ahead.
#2: The “Daily” Wave Lottery: Apply Three Days Ahead
The “daily” lottery is confusing and often misunderstood, because it’s not a day-of lottery + hike. You’re not applying, winning, and hiking on the same day.
You have to basically spend three days in the region, to win the “daily” lottery to hike The Wave.
Only 16 people, or 4 groups (whichever comes first) end up winning the “daily lottery” for The Wave.
Here’s the three-day process:
- DAY 1: Apply on Recreation.gov for the daily lottery, between 6am and 6pm. Winners are notified at 7:15pm
- DAY 2: Mandatory safety briefing at 8:30am sharp (more on this eye-opening situation down below)
- DAY 3: Hike The Wave
It’s also crucial to remember: You can’t apply for the “daily lottery” from Phoenix or Las Vegas on “Day 1.”
In 2022, they instituted a new rule:
You have to be within the BLM’s “Geofence Perimeter” to enter the daily lottery to hike The Wave.
That Geofence Perimeter is on the map below:
Your Chances of Winning a Permit to The Wave
In August, on one of our many trips to Page, we were told almost one thousand people were applying for a “daily lottery” permit for The Wave each day.
That put our chances of winning a permit to hike The Wave at less than 2%.
In general, I’m told the odds of winning The Wave lottery during the popular summer months hover between 2% and 3%.
In the winter months, your chances grow to about 10% – 12%. Still not great… but at least you could call it a chance!
How to Increase Your Chances of Winning a Permit to The Wave
The staff at the BLM, The Hub in Page, and the office in Kanab are all sticklers for the rules.
The crew in Page worked hard to get the BLM to give them the right to operate The Wave lottery out of their office. They now split duties with the longtime home of the lottery in Kanab, Utah.
They’re not about to screw things up by “letting one slide” and giving away extra permits, or even unused permits to people who didn’t rightfully win the lottery.
With zero cheating going on, your only opportunity to increase your chances of winning a permit to hike The Wave is to play the ‘numbers game.’
This is the advice I’ve gathered over the years from several trusted sources:
1. Apply in the Winter
Fewer people apply for permits in December, January, and February, so your chances of winning a permit to The Wave are much better during these months.
2. Get a Group of 6 People Together
Increasing your group size will maximize your chances of winning a permit to The Wave.
However, each of you should apply separately, for a group of six.
That way, if one person in your group wins the lottery, all six get to go.
I’d cap it at six, because that’s as many as they allow in a “group.” If seven apply and one person wins a permit, one member of the group of seven won’t get to go.
3. Use the Kids to Maximize Your Chances
There’s no age limit to apply, so anyone in your group can enter to win the lottery.
Just remember: if your toddler’s name is drawn, your toddler will have to go on the hike!
4. Apply to Hike on Weekdays, Not Weekends
Weekdays typically see fewer applicants, so you’ll maximize your chances of winning The Wave lottery if you apply to hike midweek.
Keep in mind: a Monday hike means applying on Saturday if you enter the “daily” lottery.
By that logic, your chances of a Wednesday or Thursday lottery win are greater, since you’d have to be in the region to apply Monday or Tuesday in the “daily” lottery.
5. Be Flexible & Enter Three Dates
In the advance lottery, you’re allowed to list three dates each month on your application.
You’re only allowed to win once, but being flexible and choosing three days will maximize your chances of winning a permit for The Wave.
Imagine all six people in your group applying for the same three dates. That definitely increases your chances of winning a permit!
6. Don’t List Alternates
The application for both the advance lottery and the “daily” lottery allow you to list alternate group leaders.
Resist the urge!
Instead, to increase the odds of winning a permit to The Wave, make each person in the group pay the $9 to enter separately.
Being listed as an alternate on your application will disqualify their separate applications to the lottery.
The Advice Put to Use
For our August attempt, 6 people applying would have boosted our chances of winning a permit from 1.6% to almost 10%. Still abysmal, I know, but it’s an increase!
In December or January, when the odds are 10% for a daily lottery win, six people applying would increase your chances of winning a permit to The Wave up to 60%. That’s about as good as it’ll get!
Disbelief: My Experience at The Wave Safety Briefing
We (again) lost the daily lottery for permits to The Wave (again) despite several of us applying recently.
Out of genuine curiosity, I asked the friendly staff at The Hub Page-Lake Powell if I could come watch the briefing for all of the lucky people who *did* win.
Again, I love this area so much that I’m never annoyed to lose the lottery, because there are so many other great things to do.
The Hub in Page, AZ
The Hub is linked to the Page-Lake Powell Chamber of Commerce, and in 2022 they began splitting permitting and lottery duties with their competition over in Kanab, Utah.
Until this point, Kanab got all of The Wave business. The folks in Page lobbied for a while to get a share of the action, and it paid off!
Today’s Winners
I arrived at The Hub Visitor Center shortly after 8am, and expected to join a line of eager/relieved/crying-with-joy hikers waiting for the doors to open for the mandatory 8:30am safety briefing.
I was stunned to find myself alone … until 8:29am … when a couple from Sweden strolled in.
Two people.
Strolling.
Last minute.
As if was no big deal.
My head was exploding, and my jaw was on the ground.
One thousand people had applied for a permit that day.
These TWO showed up to claim that priceless prize and get their classroom briefing:
Disbelief
After bewilderedly asking the staff what happened, they said a couple of others who paid to enter and won the permit lottery just didn’t show up.
It had to beg the question: “How do I take their permits?”
The answer: “You can’t.”
The permits become null and void! They’re not reissued. There’s no waiting list.
If you win a permit to The Wave, but don’t show up for the 8:30am safety briefing, the permits so many of us have spent so much time and money applying for … simply vanish!
The Winners’ Dilemma
The nice couple from Sweden seemed happy to have won, but soon discovered during their safety briefing: they had no way to get to The Wave.
They didn’t have a 4×4, which was required at this point because heavy monsoon storms had washed out part of the road, making it impassable for a normal car.
My brain wandered further, wondering if I could drive them in my rented Jeep, and share their permit!?
Another hard “no.”
Once you win the lottery, you cannot add people to your permit. You also can’t give the permit to someone else to use.
The name on the permit, and the number of people on it, have to match the person and party that actually makes the hike in.
I’ll never know if they were able to make the trip the following day!
Important Info When You DO Win The Wave Lottery
The Safety Briefing
If you win the “daily” lottery, you MUST attend the safety briefing in Page or Kanab.
Your permit will be tossed, and it becomes null and void if you’re not on time for the briefing the day *before* you hike The Wave.
There are no refunds, and the permits can’t be transferred to anyone else or rescheduled. There are no exceptions at all.
The Hike
It’s almost a seven-mile round-trip hike to The Wave, so bring more food and water than you think you’ll need.
The BLM suggests six liters of water per person.
Go early in the summer. If you arrive by 10:00am on a hot day, a ranger might tell you to turn around because you’re beginning too late in the day.
Right before our last planned visit, someone had to be flown off the trail with heat exhaustion.
On the opposite side, it gets COLD when the sun sets in the winter, so gloves and hats are a must.
Cell service is spotty, so download a trail map to use offline from AllTrails.
Take photos of landmarks on your way in, to help guide you on your way out.
The Drive to The Wave
Road conditions vary wildly through the year. They could be snowy in December, and washed out in August.
I’d suggest having a high-profile four-wheel-drive no matter when you go, just to be on the safe side.
The dirt is clay-like and becomes a muddy mess.
Alternatives to The Wave
One good thing about losing the permit lottery for The Wave so many times over so many years is: I’ve really come to love other parts of the area!
Southern Utah and Northern Arizona are home to impressive natural wonders.
Frankly, my favorite: White Pocket, is more jaw-dropping than The Wave!
I have a whole other blog which focuses on some of the alternatives to The Wave. It’s helpful for people who make the trip to Page (or Kanab) hoping they might be able to land a permit from the daily lotto.
➡️ CLICK HERE: JARED’S DETOURS BLOG: Alternatives to The Wave
Page, AZ: Getting Here & Where to Stay
Page has a number of hotels and rental options. You can use this interactive map to search around to see what’s available for the dates you’re considering:
We usually stay at the Hyatt Place in Page, because of their large rooms, friendly staff, and kitchen which is open very early in the morning and pretty late at night!
➡️ BOOK A HOTEL: Hyatt Place Page / Lake Powell
To maximize our time on the ground in Page, we usually fly up from Phoenix on Contour Airlines:
➡️ BOOK A FLIGHT: Contour Airlines flies from PHX – Page, AZ
It’s a quick 45-minute flight from Terminal 3 at PHX, so it saves hours on either end of your trip, if you’re heading up from Phoenix.
➡️ BOOK A CAR: Rent a car in advance! They’ll often sell out in Page.
